Article by: Mike York, COO
Every January, business decision-makers want to believe consumers are reborn.
According to decks. According to offsites. According to someone who just added “2026 Strategy” to the slide title and felt powerful.
The reality of it? January is just December in a better font. Those same buyers woke up on January 2nd with:
- the same habits
- the same budget anxiety
- and a vat of protein powder they will definitely not finish
That’s not a fresh start. That’s a rebrand.
The Fresh Start Consumer Is a Planning Delusion
We love the idea that January resets behavior.
That consumers:
- suddenly make rational decisions
- stop buying what they always buy
- and finally understand our value proposition
This belief has survived inflation, pandemics, and overwhelming evidence. Which should tell you something.
Behavior Doesn’t Reset. Guilt Briefly Takes the Wheel.
January doesn’t create new buyers.
It creates:
- aspirational versions of existing ones
- short-term self-improvement theater
- and survey responses written by people who mean well
By February, muscle memory clocks back in and quietly takes over. The daily motivational quotes you signed up for turn into “white noise” as push notifications. The journaling you’ve vowed to do weekly now garners once-a-month hopes. In fact, Psychology Today recently stated that most people abandon their resolutions by February (~80%, depending on the study you’re reading).
Why Research Keeps Falling for It
Because January data is polite. So polite, indeed.
Consumers:
- answer thoughtfully
- say “I plan to” with conviction
- act like the kind of person who owns storage bins
And marketers, already emotionally exhausted four weeks into the new year, write it down. But plans are not behavior. Intentions are not habits. And optimism is not a leading indicator.
The January Effect (Also Known as Consumer Cosplay)
January consumers are cosplaying as:
- healthier
- more organized
- and wildly optimistic about their future selves
February consumers would like a word.
This doesn’t mean people lied. It means they were participating in a longstanding social ritual, not forecasting their real behavior.
The Real Consumer Was Here the Whole Time
By week three of January, the “new” consumer vanishes.
What remains is the same person who:
- buys on autopilot
- trades off price and convenience
- and makes choices they can defend if asked
The only difference is that the guilt budget is slightly higher.
How This Myth Wrecks Strategy Every Year
When brands plan for a fresh start consumer, they:
- overreact to early spikes
- confuse intent with momentum
- and call temporary behavior a “trend”
January lifts are not trends. They are hope with a timestamp.
What Smart Research Looks Like in 2026
In 2026, the job isn’t to chase the January consumer.
It’s to understand:
- what resets briefly
- what rebounds immediately
- and what never changed at all
That means:
- longitudinal data
- context-aware interpretation
- and resisting the urge to title anything “New Year, New Consumer”
The Last Word
The consumer does not get a fresh start in January.
They get:
- a moment of optimism
- a short burst of discipline
- and a survey window that flatters everyone involved
Then reality shows up and resumes control with an iron fist.
The best insights teams in 2026 won’t plan for the consumer people wish they were in January.
They’ll plan for the one who reliably shows up the rest of the year; habits intact, contradictions fully operational.
Because the myth of the fresh start consumer isn’t harmless. It just makes February feel like a surprise.
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SMARI is an award-winning Indiana-based market research consultancy that was founded in 1983 with the idea of guiding change and inspiring confidence. We are proud to work with SMEs as well as a variety of Fortune 500 brands. We are powered by our core values: integrity, community, perseverance, trust, passion, curiosity, and innovation. SMARI’s expertise encompasses complete project scopes, including instrument design, sampling & fielding services, reporting & analysis in the Healthcare, CPG, Retail, Food & Beverage, Manufacturing, and Financial Services industries, among others. Much has changed in our 40+ years, but our tagline and overarching mission remain the same—to guide change and inspire confidence. Start a conversation with us at www.SMARI.com.
