Article by: Mike York, COO

Every year, we pretend this is the year that buying behaviors finally make sense.

2026 is not that year.

Looking at the madness through a research lens, what’s changing isn’t people, it’s the rules they pretend they’re using to make decisions. The vibes and energy are different. The data is lying. And your brand tracker is suffering in silence in the corner.

Up first, let’s look at the 2026 behavior shifts to watch on the CPG/Retail side. Explained like you’re still tired from the holidays and allergic to buzzwords.

“Value” No Longer Means “Cheap,” It Means “I Can Defend This Choice in Court”

Consumers are still price-sensitive. They’re just emotionally price-sensitive now.

They’ll buy the cheapest 1-ply paper towels available… …and then casually drop $14 on organic olive oil because it’s “better for me.”

What’s actually happening:

• People are optimizing for self-justification, not savings
• Spending is less “trade down” and more “trade sideways but be louder about it”

Research translation: If your price-elasticity model assumes logic, you’re believing in historical fiction.

2026 value research needs to answer: “When do consumers allow themselves to be irrational?”

Brand Trust Is Now Situational, Like Liking a Coworker

Consumers don’t “trust” brands anymore. They tolerate them in specific contexts.

Same brand:

• Trusted for safety ✅
• Trusted for innovation ❌
• Trusted when it’s on sale ✅
• Trusted when it launches something new ❌❌❌

What’s actually happening:

• Loyalty didn’t die, it just stopped being exclusive
• People rotate brands like outfits, not marriages

Research translation: If your tracker assumes trust is a single score, it’s politely lying to you.

Welcome to “trust by job description.”

AI Is Influencing Purchases Even When People Swear It Isn’t

Consumers: “I did my own research.”

Also, consumers: reads AI summary, clicks first option, feels totally confident

AI didn’t replace decision-making. It helped quell decision anxiety, which is more powerful.

What’s actually happening:

• Shorter consideration sets
• Faster decisions
• Stronger post-purchase confidence (even when the product isn’t spectacular)

Research translation: Path-to-purchase questions are becoming fan fiction.

If you rely only on stated influence, you’re measuring what consumers want credit for, not what actually helped them decide.

Private Label Is No Longer the “Budget Phase” People Grow Out Of

Private label used to mean: “I’m being responsible.”

Now it means: “I’m not paying for your nonsense.”

Consumers aren’t embarrassed by private label anymore. Now, they’re being strategic about it.

What’s actually happening:

• Retailers are brands now
• Private label is chosen, not settled for

Research translation: If your competitive set ignores the retailer, you’re fighting ghosts.

Also: it’s time to stop asking “who buys private label” like it’s a purchasing flaw.

Health Went Quiet (Because Everyone Ruined It)

Consumers still care about health. They just don’t believe you.

What’s actually happening:

• “Healthy” claims trigger skepticism
• “Less bad” beats “more good”
• Ingredient scrutiny > wellness storytelling

Research translation: Claim testing without credibility testing is just wishful thinking.

Also: ethnography is back, because people will show you what they won’t admit.

Convenience Now Means “Please Stop Making Me Choose”

Speed is nice. Fewer decisions is better.

2026 convenience is about mental load, not delivery time.

What’s actually happening:

• Subscription fatigue, but not simplification fatigue
• Consumers want defaults they can override, not commitments they regret

Research translation: Time saved ≠ stress reduced.

If you’re not measuring cognitive relief, you’re missing why people repurchase.

Social Influence Is Now About Validation, Not Aspiration

Influencers no longer make people want things. They make people feel less dumb for buying them.

What’s actually happening:

• Reviews are read after purchase
• “People like me” beats “people I admire”

Research translation: Influence models need to separate:

• What triggers purchase
• What reassures purchase

Those are not the same job anymore.

Sustainability Is Either Proven or Unspoken

Consumers don’t want your sustainability story.

They want:

• Receipts
• Certifications
• Or silence

What’s actually happening:

• Greenwashing sensitivity remains undefeated
• Less messaging, more specificity

Research translation: Binary “do you care about sustainability” questions should be deleted.

Trust-weighted belief thresholds are the new baseline.

So What Does This Mean for Insights in 2026?

It means:

• Consumers are messier
• Surveys are lying more
• Context matters more than opinions
• And single-number KPIs should be viewed with suspicion

The best research teams will:

• Design for trade-offs, not attitudes
• Measure moments, not averages
• Blend behavioral + attitudinal + contextual data
• Admit when the data doesn’t behave nicely

And, really, that’s when the real insight starts.

The Last Word

The 2026 consumer is not broken. They are not confused. They are not “acting strangely.”

They are doing exactly what you would do after three years of economic whiplash, infinite choice, algorithmic advice, and brands yelling VALUE in all caps.

What is broken is the idea that:

• people make decisions in clean, linear ways
• attitudes neatly predict behavior
• and one number can explain a human being

Consumers didn’t suddenly become illogical.

So if the data feels messier, good. If the story is more complex to tell, even better. That’s not noise, that’s reality finally showing up and settling in.

The job of the insights industry in 2026 isn’t to simplify consumers. It’s to translate complexity without sanding off the truth.

And if that makes your tracker sweaty and uncomfortable? Perfect!

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