Article by: Mike York, COO
Every year, Thanksgiving gives us many things: family drama, questionable casseroles, leaking containers with unidentifiable smells, and the annual conversation that this specific dish you’ve brought from your house is a “secret family recipe.” But while most people are focused on carving turkeys, market researchers are carving out insights.
Welcome to the 2025 Thanksgiving Consumer Behavior Breakdown, where we answer big questions, like:
· Why do consumers buy 4x more groceries than they need?
· How does a single holiday turn adults into strategic plate-stacking engineers?
· And why does everyone suddenly pretend to love all flavors of pie?
Let’s dig in (with the enthusiasm of someone who has just learned the sweet potatoes have the mini-marshmallows this year).
1. The Turkey Isn’t the Only Thing Getting Stuffed: Basket Sizes Surge
Thanksgiving week grocery baskets grow approximately 37%, which is ironic, because 0% of shoppers enter the store with anything close to a coherent list. Instead, they wander aisles like contestants on Supermarket Sweep, panic-buying herbs they won’t use and purchasing backup turkeys “just in case.”
Key Insight: When consumers experience high-stakes hosting anxiety, they overbuy like they’re preparing for a winter at The Wall in Game of Thrones. Winter is coming, indeed.
It’s not scarcity, it’s pure emotional turbulence. And also, because the last time someone forgot the cranberry sauce, Aunt Linda talked about it for the subsequent three years.
2. Thanksgiving Pie: A Beloved Dessert No One Actually Finishes
Market data shows that 92% of Thanksgiving tables feature at least one pie, yet only 46% is ever consumed. The rest goes into Cold Storage (the fridge) until it quietly expires alongside the broccoli and deli meat that was inexplicably purchased in your grocery store daze.
Why do pies over-index so hard?
Because Thanksgiving has a rule: “It’s tradition!” You can’t break tradition. If you do, the Pilgrims show up in your dreams.
Also, pie signals hospitality. It’s the warm, flaky hug that says: “I’ve tried. Please love me. Ignore the lumpy gravy.”
3. Post-Meal Behavior: The Couch Migration
While birds migrate south, humans migrate… to the couch.
Within just 12 minutes of finishing the meal, 83% of Thanksgiving participants begin what scientists lovingly refer to as The Turkey Slump™, a complex blend of tryptophan, carbs, and the emotional impact of hearing your cousin say they’re “dabbling in crypto again.”
Brands could learn from this: sometimes consumers don’t need more features, they just need a comfortable recliner and a blanket they pretend is “just a quick nap.”
4. Black Friday: The Emotional Whiplash of Gratitude → Violence
On Thursday, consumers gather around tables, expressing heartfelt gratitude. On Friday at 5 a.m., those same people will fight a stranger over a discounted toaster.
This is the Consumer Duality Effect:
- Thankful: for family, warmth, abundance
- Also thankful: for 70% off, limited stock, and the thrill of real-life mortal combat in a Target electronics aisle
If Thanksgiving is about sentiment, Black Friday is about survival of the most caffeinated.
5. The Rise of the “Co-Cooking Economy”
Gone are the days of one heroic Thanksgiving chef. Now, the modern household requires a co-cooking workforce, consisting of:
- The Sous-Chef Who Keeps Eating Ingredients
- The Person Who Makes One Dish But Takes Full Credit
- The Relative Who “Helps” by standing in the kitchen doing nothing but being in the way and nibbling charcuterie
- The Turkey Influencer: the one who insists on showing everyone YouTube videos on advanced brining techniques
This collaborative chaos reveals a key insight: Consumers feel ownership even when their contribution was just stirring something once.
Brand takeaway: give people small tasks that feel big.
6. Portion Control: A Myth, A Fantasy, A Lie
Thanksgiving is the greatest annual example of unrealistic self-forecasting in all of behavioral economics.
Morning-of: “I’m going to eat light today. Just one plate.”
Reality: Five plates later, they’re negotiating with their waistband like it’s the final round of a hostage situation.
This is also why seasonal recipe sites get record traffic: consumers dream big. They imagine they’ll make 12 gourmet dishes… Then, inevitably, buy premade rolls.
The Last Word
Thanksgiving is the Super Bowl of consumer behavior. The holiday exposes every quirk of the American consumer:
- Overbuying
- Emotional purchases
- Tradition-driven behaviors
- Post-meal lethargy
- Short-lived gratitude before aggressive deal-hunting
- Unrealistic self-assessment of cooking skills
But most importantly, it shows that food, familiarity, and family rituals drive powerful decisions; even decisions as absurd as buying a 24-pound turkey for a family of four.
And honestly? Marketers dream of that level of irrational loyalty.
May your pants have generous elastic, and you unearth those last two slices of pecan pie before they go bad. Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!
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